0xbc17d10a2b6bd7d0ea8ebbf38ebcfb96197431b0
- Realised P&L
- $-288.41
- Volume
- $172.3k
- Markets traded
- 9,242
- Open portfolio
- $84.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,242
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.688 | 0.905 | $18.10 | +$4.35 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.797 | 0.955 | $14.32 | +$2.38 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.925 | $13.88 | +$2.17 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on September 21? · No | 0.963 | 0.994 | $10.14 | +$0.31 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.675 | 0.865 | $8.65 | +$1.90 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.705 | $7.05 | +$0.75 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.260 | $6.50 | −$8.50 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.315 | $6.30 | −$2.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.94at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?
- +$60.69at 0.324Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
- +$52.63at 0.302Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
- +$51.99at 0.307Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
- +$51.06at 0.462Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 01:20 | Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 01:18 | Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $5.79 |
| 09-19 23:45 | Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 14:11 | Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.83 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 02:58 | Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $5.47 |
| 09-19 02:00 | Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 02:10 | Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.93 | $4.99 |
| 09-18 01:59 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $5.53 |
| 09-17 08:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | SELL | 0.85 | $5.47 |
| 09-17 01:49 | Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.93 | $4.99 |
| 09-15 21:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.49 | $3.76 |
| 09-15 21:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 15? | SELL | 0.996 | $5.31 |
| 09-15 05:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $4.31 |
| 09-14 20:33 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 14? | SELL | 0.939 | $3.79 |
| 09-14 20:23 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 14? | SELL | 0.923 | $5.53 |