sumpfbartholomew
0xbbf37a08c60e418bea0226c580ca917548a384fc
- Realised P&L
- $-5.30
- Volume
- $681.28
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $23.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.875 | $11.08 | +$1.08 |
| Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.027 | $6.10 | −$19.90 |
| Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.338 | 0.205 | $6.06 | −$3.94 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · No | 0.130 | 0.011 | $0.44 | −$4.56 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.83at 0.562Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$20.97at 0.364Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?
- +$9.23at 0.520Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$5.83at 0.764Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- +$2.66at 0.790Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 20:18 | Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.0699999897 | $6.00 |
| 08-13 09:20 | Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.1425682974 | $20.00 |
| 08-13 09:19 | Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.3383084414 | $10.00 |
| 08-13 09:13 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999993 | $40.00 |
| 06-19 11:51 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 11:50 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 06-19 11:49 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899999866 | $10.00 |
| 06-19 11:46 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 06-14 16:25 | Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.14 |
| 06-14 16:25 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.996 | $25.01 |
| 06-13 15:28 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3639344177 | $12.00 |
| 06-13 15:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7899999866 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 15:17 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.8199999923 | $15.00 |
| 06-13 15:17 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8869999138 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 10:47 | Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.7564632823 | $19.00 |