filthymudeok
0xbbe3fb94608928651123d69231c0213ef6e75b92
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $308.7k
- Markets traded
- 334
- Open portfolio
- $10.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded334
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.683Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
- +$1.6kat 0.214US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.319US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?
- +$675.01at 0.535Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$263.65at 0.653US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 21:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 09-27 02:07 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | SELL | 0.9643728608 | $55.79 |
| 09-26 12:15 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.148 | $1.04 |
| 09-26 10:49 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.131 | $2.23 |
| 09-26 10:48 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.131 | $4.06 |
| 09-26 10:46 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.131 | $3.41 |
| 09-26 10:45 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.131 | $4.45 |
| 09-26 10:14 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.132 | $9.24 |
| 09-26 09:46 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.129 | $1.29 |
| 09-26 03:23 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.135 | $0.94 |
| 09-26 00:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $843.47 |
| 09-22 10:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 09-22 09:20 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 09-22 08:53 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $34.20 |
| 09-16 23:59 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.162 | $1.13 |