0xbbbaa753ad90bdb3e0069db451ae4e02d7c7d60f
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $83.9k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.761 | 0.945 | $5.4k | +$1.0k |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.940 | $860.15 | +$73.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$887.55at 0.849Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$612.61at 0.812Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$507.06at 0.713Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$238.89at 0.831Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$117.66at 0.722Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 00:03 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8599999981 | $35.45 |
| 09-07 00:03 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8599999993 | $146.45 |
| 09-07 00:03 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $605.05 |
| 09-07 00:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $812.09 |
| 09-01 06:36 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.6662478817 | $60.00 |
| 09-01 06:36 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999987 | $62.59 |
| 09-01 06:35 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $126.50 |
| 09-01 06:32 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999617 | $3.45 |
| 09-01 06:32 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999996 | $125.00 |
| 08-31 16:24 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2239483675 | $31.81 |
| 08-31 16:23 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $33.83 |
| 08-31 00:23 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7652037208 | $100.83 |
| 08-31 00:22 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $104.00 |
| 08-30 21:47 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $12.00 |
| 08-27 23:36 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.0599999972 | $20.00 |