JohnDoe19
0xbbabe195945c4166df4c529723013be6ec305b36
- Realised P&L
- $62.25
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $253.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.308 | 0.295 | $95.69 | −$4.31 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.110 | 0.105 | $95.45 | −$4.54 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Yes | 0.012 | 0.007 | $62.50 | −$37.50 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? · Yes | 0.335 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.38 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.26 |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) · Argentina | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$241.28at 0.300Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$211.55at 0.328Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$155.53at 0.613Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$52.65at 0.274Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$-14.13at 0.190Will Trump win 5 swing states?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 20:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999997 | $96.26 |
| 09-02 12:33 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-18 10:05 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | BUY | 0.012 | $100.00 |
| 08-18 10:05 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3082730531 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 12:07 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4169999984 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 09:18 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3349999957 | $34.38 |
| 07-15 09:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1969999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-15 08:48 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3174999988 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 08:37 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 09:38 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.4799999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-04 23:32 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.5399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-04 23:23 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3099999968 | $50.00 |
| 11-05 09:40 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2739999907 | $19.87 |
| 11-05 09:35 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6209999954 | $126.00 |
| 11-05 08:16 | Will Trump win 5 swing states? | BUY | 0.1899999892 | $14.13 |