xiaoyanyan2
0xbb9cba3579b54c036e40d64e0a027510ae9b0a5e
- Realised P&L
- $44.92
- Volume
- $11.0k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $5.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.935 | $3.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.100 | $2.00 | −$5.20 |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-17? · No | 0.792 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.95 |
| Blackhawks vs. Wild · Blackhawks | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
| Utah vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5 · Under | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
| Utah vs. Hurricanes · Utah | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.84 |
| Ducks vs. Kings · Kings | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
| Spread: Dartmouth Big Green (-1.5) · Dartmouth Big Green | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.31 |
| Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5 · Over | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.75 |
| Spread: Rockets (-2.5) · Rockets | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.73 |
| Marist Red Foxes vs. Siena Saints · Marist Red Foxes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.28at 0.716Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5
- +$29.70at 0.620Suns vs. Knicks
- +$25.72at 0.468Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
- +$25.50at 0.750Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
- +$24.84at 0.750Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 11:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9099997513 | $3.00 |
| 07-02 11:18 | GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999121 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 11:17 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $5.18 |
| 05-08 03:03 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999662 | $5.00 |
| 05-08 03:02 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.9489999356 | $6.00 |
| 05-08 03:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 05-08 03:01 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 02-06 10:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.389999986 | $9.72 |
| 01-30 02:33 | Utah vs. Hurricanes | BUY | 0.94 | $49.84 |
| 01-28 02:47 | Jets vs. Devils | SELL | 0.999 | $52.19 |
| 01-28 02:15 | Utah vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5 | BUY | 0.74 | $49.79 |
| 01-28 02:13 | Sabres vs. Maple Leafs | BUY | 0.93 | $49.84 |
| 01-28 02:12 | Predators vs. Bruins | BUY | 0.82 | $49.81 |
| 01-28 02:06 | Blackhawks vs. Wild | BUY | 0.74 | $49.79 |
| 01-28 02:01 | Golden Knights vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.76 | $49.80 |