0xbb99f85a8d885131f23ab796ed710caaa2485ca3
0xbb99f85a8d885131f23ab796ed710caaa2485ca3
- Realised P&L
- $-90.59
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 167
- Open portfolio
- $21.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded167
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026? · No | 0.320 | 0.825 | $4.13 | +$2.52 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.600 | 0.635 | $3.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.610 | $3.05 | +$0.05 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.505 | $2.52 | +$0.82 |
| Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.475 | $2.38 | +$0.38 |
| Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.460 | $2.30 | −$0.05 |
| Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.410 | $2.05 | +$0.10 |
| Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.695 | $1.72 | +$0.61 |
| Will Clix Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.006 | $0.05 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.75at 0.382LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
- +$8.97at 0.101Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-07-17?
- +$5.88at 0.100GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?
- +$5.72at 0.030Will England win on 2026-07-18?
- +$5.63at 0.120Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 16:25 | Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $0.53 |
| 10-27 13:16 | Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $0.96 |
| 10-26 20:28 | Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $1.37 |
| 10-26 19:28 | Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $0.63 |
| 10-20 16:20 | Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026? | SELL | 0.599 | $0.06 |
| 10-18 18:07 | Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $0.03 |
| 10-15 23:45 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.46 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.07 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.42 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.38 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 21:14 | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.01 |
| 09-30 10:55 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.37 |
| 09-30 10:01 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $0.33 |
| 09-29 04:35 | Will no live-action Miles Morales actor be chosen by end of 2027? | SELL | 0.26 | $0.61 |
| 09-28 15:27 | Will no live-action Miles Morales actor be chosen by end of 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.05 |