special-one
0xbb4bad17e309d66560891c58a650eb232d4e5667
- Realised P&L
- $-270.94
- Volume
- $12.5k
- Markets traded
- 230
- Open portfolio
- $57.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded230
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chantel Gibbs win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? · No | 0.870 | 0.895 | $17.90 | +$0.50 |
| Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $14.30 | −$0.90 |
| Will Truist (TFC) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.405 | $8.10 | −$5.50 |
| Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.375 | $7.50 | −$1.30 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.370 | $6.50 | −$0.70 |
| Will Chantel Gibbs win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.105 | $2.10 | −$0.70 |
| Will Michael Malchieli be the next Israeli Minister of Interior? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.190 | $0.89 | +$0.19 |
| Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.045 | $0.45 | −$0.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.20at 0.130Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?
- +$32.00at 0.170Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?
- +$24.83at 0.260UBS announces move out of Switzerland by June 30, 2027?
- +$24.00at 0.175Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
- +$22.30at 0.308Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 01:43 | Will Chantel Gibbs win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-09 01:32 | Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.50 in October? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.25 |
| 10-09 00:37 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October? | BUY | 0.68 | $6.80 |
| 10-08 23:31 | Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.72 |
| 10-08 23:31 | Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.61 |
| 10-08 23:25 | Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 10-08 23:12 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.50 |
| 10-08 22:55 | Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.12 |
| 10-08 20:11 | Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $18.20 |
| 10-08 16:19 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 16:14 | U.S. enacts Protect College Sports Act before 2027? | SELL | 0.252 | $0.49 |
| 10-08 16:14 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $0.27 |
| 10-08 16:14 | Next James Bond announced by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.23 |
| 10-08 16:14 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.18 |
| 10-08 16:14 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.09 |