0xbb470ab76ca91aade2de3768af20c5939ed69995
0xbb470ab76ca91aade2de3768af20c5939ed69995
- Realised P&L
- $-3.99
- Volume
- $225.33
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $6.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.951 | $2.56 | +$1.56 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.689 | 0.935 | $1.36 | +$0.36 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.240 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.240 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.145 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.135 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
- +$3.14at 0.247Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.72at 0.651Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:03 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 00:03 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 16:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.3719998676 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:01 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:00 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 03:23 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2149999903 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 06:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:49 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6889999097 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:56 | Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:58 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:39 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:37 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 06:35 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $540 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |