mantiss00
0xbb14cde6d45012362ab6a812f4217436028e14ff
- Realised P&L
- $-226.49
- Volume
- $29.6k
- Markets traded
- 389
- Open portfolio
- $157.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded389
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.11at 0.880Solana Up or Down - January 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
- +$20.53at 0.649Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
- +$10.81at 0.961Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.98at 0.920Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
- +$6.69at 0.960Solana Up or Down - February 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 14:13 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.942999998 | $20.00 |
| 08-07 13:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9759999838 | $50.00 |
| 08-07 13:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.9669999832 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 21:03 | Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 19:21 | Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.9309999972 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 19:21 | Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 19:19 | Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.87 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 11:31 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $1.12 |
| 08-02 07:36 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 14:30 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9709999165 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 12:13 | Will Ukraine target Moscow by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 08:14 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $1.03 |
| 08-01 08:14 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $1.08 |
| 07-31 17:29 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.20 |
| 07-31 11:00 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |