rumpuld
0xbafdb19e98db609ec5ce2f1e12de4ffecdd52964
- Realised P&L
- $-37.1k
- Volume
- $606.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.056 | $3.5k | −$2.5k |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.043 | $174.96 | −$178.98 |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$594.00 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.3k |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance · Norway | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$229.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.212 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.8k |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$738.00 |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance · Switzerland | 0.171 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.6k |
| UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) · Mike Davis | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$384.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.702Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
- +$1.2kat 0.795France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$1.1kat 0.517Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$133.16at 0.054Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
- +$-38.31at 0.300Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $7.0k |
| 09-11 12:32 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $487.96 |
| 09-11 02:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 09-10 16:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.3k |
| 09-10 15:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.3k |
| 09-04 12:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.46 | $467.94 |
| 09-04 12:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.7k |
| 07-25 04:36 | UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.32 | $384.00 |
| 07-20 00:34 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.5378165138 | $586.22 |
| 07-20 00:18 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.108 | $21.60 |
| 07-20 00:15 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.5471651376 | $596.41 |
| 07-20 00:14 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.077 | $115.00 |
| 07-18 23:35 | Will the fight be won by submission? | SELL | 0.31 | $168.38 |
| 07-18 20:36 | Will the fight be won by submission? | BUY | 0.43 | $216.72 |
| 07-18 20:35 | Will the fight be won by submission? | BUY | 0.42 | $16.45 |