Falcon1-444
0xbaf7ec26a389d99c5950ab6d74ef93a553b55464
- Realised P&L
- $116.09
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $371.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.960 | $371.16 | +$77.33 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.00at 0.750US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$51.33at 0.823Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.52at 0.990Scroll airdrop in 2024?
- +$0.27at 0.997Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$0.24at 0.997Swell airdrop in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-26 16:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $180.00 |
| 01-19 15:06 | Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $3.00 |
| 11-23 19:35 | Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | BUY | 0.0539999504 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:58 | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8989999969 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 18:58 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1089999139 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12? | BUY | 0.9979999645 | $23.00 |
| 07-25 08:26 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? | BUY | 0.999 | $70.00 |
| 07-25 08:26 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? | SELL | 0.9978191906 | $4.1k |
| 07-25 07:47 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.1k |
| 06-30 06:46 | Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? | BUY | 0.9989999716 | $34.00 |
| 06-30 06:46 | Will Solana dip to $120 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.00 |
| 06-30 06:45 | Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? | BUY | 0.998999951 | $20.00 |
| 06-30 06:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | BUY | 0.998999951 | $20.00 |
| 02-24 07:20 | Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.00 |
| 01-22 13:44 | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $84.00 |