sgs123
0xbaf188d726fc1c56f2bc6243d42674a2d7d6cd78
- Realised P&L
- $-16.47
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $619.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.989 | 0.975 | $572.44 | −$8.50 |
| US imports Russian diesel by January 31? · No | 0.370 | 0.325 | $16.26 | −$2.25 |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $830,000 and $851,000 on December 31? · No | 0.630 | 0.434 | $8.68 | −$3.92 |
| US imports Russian diesel by March 31? · No | 0.290 | 0.315 | $6.30 | +$0.50 |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? · No | 0.370 | 0.270 | $5.40 | −$2.00 |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.260 | $5.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31? · No | 0.640 | 0.665 | $2.61 | +$0.10 |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.345 | $1.71 | −$0.72 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.440 | $0.95 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.83at 0.942Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$2.20at 0.490Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
- +$0.80at 0.580Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?
- +$0.30at 0.995Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- +$0.00at 0.470Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 04:16 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $337.64 |
| 10-30 15:44 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $23.95 |
| 10-29 05:16 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.83 |
| 10-28 04:35 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $199.51 |
| 10-27 06:07 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.51 | $56.10 |
| 10-26 17:49 | Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9390608175 | $94.19 |
| 10-26 14:51 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $59.70 |
| 10-26 10:43 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.49 | $264.60 |
| 10-26 10:43 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.49 | $98.00 |
| 10-26 10:43 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.49 | $24.50 |
| 10-24 17:01 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.164 | $8.20 |