icidark
0xba942ad2ac68f9af230b4944c05b2e2e8da6d855
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $194.7k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.305 | $466.08 | −$123.19 |
| Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.355 | $453.40 | −$132.55 |
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.580 | $290.00 | −$30.00 |
| Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.465 | $9.30 | −$4.70 |
| Will Irma Rosibel Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 3% and 6%? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$506.16at 0.157Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$470.66at 0.107Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$465.84at 0.882Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?
- +$278.70at 0.647Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$198.04at 0.021Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-26 23:48 | Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4 | $35.46 |
| 12-20 10:37 | Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | BUY | 0.05 | $25.00 |
| 12-10 18:53 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.036 | $18.00 |
| 12-10 17:32 | HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 09:57 | HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.53 |
| 12-10 09:36 | HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0049996975 | $5.29 |
| 12-10 09:32 | HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.77 |
| 12-06 17:31 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | SELL | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 09:53 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | BUY | 0.261 | $26.10 |
| 12-06 09:53 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | BUY | 0.261 | $104.40 |
| 12-06 09:39 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | BUY | 0.2998846 | $59.98 |
| 12-05 22:59 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | SELL | 0.349 | $104.56 |
| 12-05 20:58 | Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | SELL | 0.315 | $9.13 |
| 12-04 19:18 | HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0898942345 | $130.35 |
| 12-04 19:17 | HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.086 | $4.30 |