0xba6cd5a3305c8dfd359b821c9aa8b8395800ecee
- Realised P&L
- $-4.47
- Volume
- $101.74
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $4.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.915 | $2.49 | +$0.48 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.275 | $1.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.114 | $0.76 | −$1.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.26at 0.380Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.09at 0.620Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$1.53at 0.570Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 08:23 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999045 | $1.81 |
| 08-02 05:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 21:00 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 12:59 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:06 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.08 |
| 07-31 20:04 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 12:02 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 19:27 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 04:53 | Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5899999941 | $2.01 |
| 07-28 20:37 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |
| 07-28 03:10 | Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.11 |
| 07-27 17:03 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-27 01:14 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |