0xba31ed76726b1b57b3dc8b5e248bb7071d87cd61
0xba31ed76726b1b57b3dc8b5e248bb7071d87cd61
- Realised P&L
- $4.84
- Volume
- $83.40
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $13.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.966 | $5.10 | +$0.08 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.970 | 1.000 | $4.69 | +$0.14 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.905 | $3.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.14at 0.167Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.19at 0.570US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.380Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
- +$0.65at 0.303Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
- +$0.43at 0.943Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:40 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999148 | $5.02 |
| 10-06 10:43 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.55 |
| 10-06 10:43 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 18:33 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.9379999968 | $2.96 |
| 10-05 18:33 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.9379999986 | $4.00 |
| 10-03 09:42 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 09:42 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999991 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 09:42 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 09:41 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 09:41 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999991 | $2.00 |
| 10-03 09:41 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999991 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 16:23 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.985999999 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 16:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | SELL | 0.509 | $1.77 |
| 06-19 04:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | BUY | 0.2869998413 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 08:39 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1619998775 | $1.00 |