lifetimeofwar
0xba1135b09343f7cda3a008cbf744c7482071b350
- Realised P&L
- $10.67
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $144.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat? · No | 0.956 | 0.966 | $50.23 | +$0.52 |
| Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.950 | $49.85 | −$0.03 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.974 | 0.920 | $44.87 | −$2.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.38at 0.963Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
- +$2.31at 0.956Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
- +$2.14at 0.962Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$1.12at 0.949Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- +$1.06at 0.940Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 11:59 | Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.96 | $25.00 |
| 06-11 13:11 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.9619999906 | $62.00 |
| 05-20 05:56 | Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.9595913185 | $53.30 |
| 05-11 11:03 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9558088377 | $50.00 |
| 04-13 11:28 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999598 | $20.75 |