kiann99
0xba0dc6424ec1a79125978e9c65770d8f0e28d084
- Realised P&L
- $-329.76
- Volume
- $10.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $16.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)13.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.002 | $8.58 | −$36.42 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $7.50 | +$2.55 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.02 |
| Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.87at 0.230Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December?
- +$0.32at 0.390US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-0.40at 0.440US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$-0.91at 0.110Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December?
- +$-1.97at 0.610Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-01 11:11 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $4.95 |
| 04-01 11:10 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.10 |
| 04-01 11:10 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.82 |
| 03-26 12:52 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.3899999298 | $2.50 |
| 03-26 12:52 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.4399999155 | $2.50 |
| 03-25 13:41 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $9.99 |
| 03-25 13:40 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 03-25 13:36 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.03 |
| 03-22 04:24 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0078655532 | $45.00 |
| 04-24 10:48 | Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election? | BUY | 0.0990916598 | $30.00 |
| 12-24 16:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? | BUY | 0.1199999964 | $28.03 |
| 12-24 16:01 | Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | SELL | 0.57 | $28.03 |
| 12-20 02:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? | BUY | 0.2683486194 | $39.00 |
| 12-20 02:31 | Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? | SELL | 0.0665279174 | $38.26 |
| 12-20 02:31 | Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? | SELL | 0.074 | $0.74 |