kaese
0xba0d056cd6966f1b8608cc79040d4e0c10191fd0
- Realised P&L
- $151.49
- Volume
- $149.2k
- Markets traded
- 280
- Open portfolio
- $50.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded280
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$215.51at 0.220Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$149.37at 0.096Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$120.67at 0.230US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$111.00at 0.210US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$94.38at 0.025Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 00:55 | Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.023 | $7.48 |
| 10-26 10:43 | Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.016 | $4.68 |
| 10-26 10:04 | Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.26 |
| 10-26 08:43 | Will Zoran Stojiljković be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.20 |
| 10-26 01:01 | Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.24 | $13.68 |
| 10-26 01:00 | Will Vladan Đokić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.42 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 00:59 | Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.01 |
| 10-26 00:58 | Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 10-25 21:34 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.50 |