0xb9dCCE8e0161605bed7fFBe887f799ebD75597Cd-1772850131092
0xb9dcce8e0161605bed7ffbe887f799ebd75597cd
- Realised P&L
- $-10.12
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $0.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $15 before 2027? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.033 | $0.68 | −$0.33 |
| Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets · Massachusetts Minutemen | 0.402 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.59 |
| 76ers vs. Knicks · 76ers | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.87 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.16 |
| Knicks vs. Clippers · Knicks | 0.559 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.78 |
| Rockets vs. Lakers · Lakers | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.45 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.01 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.21 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.49at 0.410Utah vs. Flames
- +$3.72at 0.479Raptors vs. Pelicans
- +$3.68at 0.540Red Wings vs. Panthers
- +$2.31at 0.347UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
- +$1.00at 0.985Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 06:33 | Will Lighter reach $15 before 2027? | BUY | 0.048999956 | $1.01 |
| 08-16 06:32 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.6199998917 | $1.03 |
| 07-08 10:14 | UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3399998867 | $1.20 |
| 06-14 09:16 | San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles | BUY | 0.55 | $1.21 |
| 06-11 10:15 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.649999944 | $1.16 |
| 06-04 13:34 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 05-05 13:10 | 76ers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.2899999495 | $2.87 |
| 04-29 11:46 | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.6299999537 | $2.45 |
| 04-12 15:10 | Utah vs. Flames | BUY | 0.4099999277 | $3.12 |
| 04-12 15:06 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.986 | $12.60 |
| 04-01 15:50 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $12.66 |
| 03-16 04:06 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.02 |
| 03-16 04:06 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.983 | $991.35 |
| 03-13 08:44 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.983 | $991.35 |
| 03-13 08:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | BUY | 0.0110000002 | $1.12 |