0xb9D36cF0f05690067a3C8BD025480Fc1444895F9-1775024459500
0xb9d36cf0f05690067a3c8bd025480fc1444895f9
- Realised P&L
- $116.57
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $148.35
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.720 | 0.805 | $51.83 | +$5.47 |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? · No | 0.780 | 0.765 | $29.41 | −$0.58 |
| Will Nicoletti win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? · No | 0.750 | 0.765 | $15.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Lahesio Bonfim win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? · No | 0.799 | 0.784 | $14.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · No | 0.800 | 0.720 | $13.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election? · No | 0.800 | 0.725 | $13.43 | −$1.39 |
| Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? · No | 0.790 | 0.790 | $10.16 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.25at 0.660Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$19.57at 0.824Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$15.98at 0.651Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$13.32at 0.837Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$7.87at 0.836Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 21:51 | Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.79 | $10.16 |
| 09-30 21:50 | Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.78 | $14.99 |
| 09-30 21:49 | Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.78 | $14.99 |
| 09-30 21:44 | Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election? | BUY | 0.8 | $14.82 |
| 09-30 21:36 | Will Lahesio Bonfim win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | BUY | 0.799 | $15.00 |
| 09-30 13:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.79 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 13:41 | Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | SELL | 0.82 | $44.70 |
| 09-30 13:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.7 | $43.04 |
| 09-30 13:40 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.93 |
| 09-21 07:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.71 | $43.65 |
| 09-20 19:53 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 13:16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.929 | $23.59 |
| 09-16 13:11 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.928 | $26.84 |
| 09-16 13:11 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $50.52 |
| 09-09 03:20 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $25.67 |