kdf9783
0xb9ae251bfd025f83f01712a8b109d376e360e636
- Realised P&L
- $2.42
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $12.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on September 26? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $12.09 | −$0.01 |
| Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.57at 0.997Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top US Netflix show this week?
- +$0.56at 0.997Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)
- +$0.51at 0.997Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on March 20, 2026?
- +$0.35at 0.998Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5?
- +$0.18at 0.999Will "Star Search" be the top US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 2026)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 03:07 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on September 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.10 |
| 08-27 03:58 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or below on August 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.70 |
| 08-11 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 12? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $11.60 |
| 07-30 02:28 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.80 |
| 07-15 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or below on July 16? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.10 |
| 07-04 09:57 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on July 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.60 |
| 06-24 01:43 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.00 |
| 05-30 03:33 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.20 |
| 05-18 02:54 | Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.00 |
| 04-22 00:57 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C or below on April 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $141.99 |
| 04-05 01:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $184.96 |
| 03-21 01:57 | Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on March 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $170.00 |
| 03-10 04:59 | Will "Nuremberg" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.20 |
| 03-01 06:23 | Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.997 | $190.00 |
| 02-10 06:03 | Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10) | BUY | 0.997 | $185.00 |