srunml
0xb9a3d17ee0fb1ffb221124d1616cd97d8e34dc90
- Realised P&L
- $-157.74
- Volume
- $154.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.135 | $1.1k | −$212.91 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.095 | $29.35 | −$7.72 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.013 | $0.03 | −$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.33at 0.103Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$1.32at 0.038Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$-37.10at 0.018Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-18 02:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.115 | $19.37 |
| 03-09 11:57 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $168.48 |
| 03-09 01:12 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $30.80 |
| 03-07 18:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $177.02 |
| 03-07 14:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $6.08 |
| 03-07 14:04 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $1.13 |
| 03-07 12:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.112 | $20.74 |
| 03-07 09:03 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $650.05 |
| 02-27 02:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.98 |
| 02-15 13:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $738.10 |
| 02-15 13:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $957.00 |
| 02-15 13:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $50.16 |
| 02-15 13:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $18.54 |
| 02-15 09:45 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $489.06 |
| 02-15 09:43 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $616.00 |