slavikbalenciaga
0xb9a161e9e89528232c17953ff3fb94688252f485
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $83.4k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $366.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.375 | $219.82 | −$32.13 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.052 | $51.98 | −$13.69 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.951 | 0.975 | $48.75 | +$1.20 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.840 | $37.08 | +$33.90 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.270 | $6.75 | −$1.00 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.555 | $1.93 | −$0.26 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.604 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$351.85 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.85 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 26, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.327Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$227.02at 0.666Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
- +$155.56at 0.914Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$118.39at 0.820Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$104.33at 0.668Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 19:02 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $4.00 |
| 09-14 19:01 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.0485740354 | $3.49 |
| 09-14 18:54 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999994 | $246.00 |
| 09-13 08:48 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 09-11 04:10 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.069 | $37.05 |
| 09-11 04:02 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0678857404 | $17.82 |
| 09-10 19:42 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.03 |
| 09-10 19:41 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.985 | $49.25 |
| 09-10 19:41 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.969 | $49.42 |
| 09-10 15:32 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 08-26 18:05 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $4.31 |
| 08-26 10:12 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 02-15 09:02 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.6899999935 | $1.06 |
| 01-08 11:40 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $184.15 |
| 01-07 00:37 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0719999801 | $3.18 |