0xb98137C7C77e4187F00960ab5d9A203e1e2AB88C-1773713793906
0xb98137c7c77e4187f00960ab5d9a203e1e2ab88c
- Realised P&L
- $4.70
- Volume
- $94.27
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $3.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.405 | $2.07 | −$0.13 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.978 | $1.68 | +$0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs · Paper Rex | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.270US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.668Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$1.72at 0.430US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$1.43at 0.495US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
- +$0.65at 0.730US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:25 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.68 |
| 10-09 03:25 | Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 03:10 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.968999551 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 02:57 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8659997789 | $1.70 |
| 09-07 03:23 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? | BUY | 0.971999993 | $1.67 |
| 08-28 03:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999685 | $1.40 |
| 08-14 08:36 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9659999008 | $5.28 |
| 07-28 06:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.4949999664 | $1.40 |
| 07-20 08:08 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $2.20 |
| 07-13 06:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.9739999951 | $1.60 |
| 07-07 03:42 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998945 | $2.20 |
| 06-30 06:40 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999965 | $5.49 |
| 06-23 05:54 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9299996435 | $2.40 |
| 06-15 03:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 04:00 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.9769999331 | $2.00 |