Magnum
0xb940f9f249d45ad830c6ca73adfee58317fc224b
- Realised P&L
- $-77.98
- Volume
- $21.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $250.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BlackBerry say "Interest Rate" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.565 | $209.16 | +$155.54 |
| Will BlackBerry say "Amazon" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.135 | $22.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will BlackBerry say "Quantum" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.125 | $19.23 | −$0.77 |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? · No | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.51 |
| Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$292.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.18at 0.233Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?
- +$273.49at 0.260Will "Hamas" be said 15 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate?
- +$200.00at 0.500George Santos expelled in 2023?
- +$194.12at 0.330Will Kanye release ‘Vultures’ Vol. 1 by Feb 9?
- +$191.07at 0.640Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 12:56 | Will BlackBerry say "Interest Rate" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.1448406267 | $53.62 |
| 09-23 12:55 | Will BlackBerry say "Amazon" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $20.00 |
| 09-23 12:53 | Will BlackBerry say "Quantum" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $20.00 |
| 04-13 00:23 | Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.0110822073 | $5.19 |
| 04-06 02:27 | Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.1089417124 | $49.15 |
| 12-10 07:47 | Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | BUY | 0.0769665377 | $192.70 |
| 12-09 06:44 | Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | BUY | 0.025 | $53.81 |
| 12-09 06:44 | Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? | SELL | 0.0385321935 | $53.82 |
| 12-09 05:42 | Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | BUY | 0.038973319 | $70.70 |
| 12-08 07:37 | Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $97.77 |
| 12-08 06:14 | Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | BUY | 0.1099999991 | $99.95 |
| 11-05 23:50 | Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2199999971 | $48.76 |
| 04-23 12:06 | Will Fantano rate new Tswift album above 5? | BUY | 0.0269387341 | $19.00 |
| 04-22 21:25 | Will Fantano rate new Tswift album above 5? | BUY | 0.0768291569 | $35.00 |
| 02-23 21:26 | Will Katie Porter advance from the 2024 CA Senate Primary? | BUY | 0.3808593743 | $250.00 |