carteloriginal
0xb90417a9250fa5d9b1212dcf532b6026dc906e43
- Realised P&L
- $-0.66
- Volume
- $93.41
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $23.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? · No | 0.950 | 0.992 | $23.81 | +$1.01 |
| Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.011 | $0.16 | −$0.86 |
| Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $6M and $8M? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.33 |
| Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than $6M? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.34at 0.690Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M?
- +$0.50at 0.795Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M?
- +$-0.13at 0.950Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least $14M?
- +$-1.20at 0.222Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M?
- +$-1.47at 0.200Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:33 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? | SELL | 0.068 | $0.23 |
| 11-01 22:08 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.14 |
| 11-01 20:45 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? | SELL | 0.061 | $0.13 |
| 11-01 20:40 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? | SELL | 0.052 | $0.18 |
| 10-31 23:21 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M? | SELL | 0.89 | $5.95 |
| 10-31 14:46 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M? | BUY | 0.068 | $1.02 |
| 10-31 10:21 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M? | SELL | 0.139 | $1.74 |
| 10-31 10:00 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M? | SELL | 0.091 | $0.11 |
| 10-31 08:43 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.16 |
| 10-31 07:30 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M? | SELL | 0.91 | $8.19 |
| 10-30 08:05 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? | BUY | 0.95 | $22.80 |
| 10-30 07:55 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M? | BUY | 0.1549999986 | $1.08 |
| 10-30 07:55 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $12M and $14M? | BUY | 0.8 | $3.70 |
| 10-29 17:56 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M? | BUY | 0.2899999663 | $1.98 |
| 10-29 17:56 | Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M? | BUY | 0.6899999716 | $4.62 |