PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xb8E2a2ee54E707926dc732C43032B2d3C5987dF9-1767613269797

0xb8e2a2ee54e707926dc732c43032b2d3c5987df9

Realised P&L
$-156.39
Volume
$16.0k
Markets traded
56
Open portfolio
$10.86

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded56
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1700.055$3.24$6.76
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.3200.065$2.03$7.97
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0800.053$2.01$0.99
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes0.1910.075$1.77$2.73
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4800.065$0.81$5.19
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027? · Yes0.1830.021$0.56$4.44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1120.045$0.40$0.60
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? · Yes0.6700.032$0.05$0.95
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$9.00
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$2.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$1.00
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18) · Yes0.5100.000$0.00$3.00
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00$5.00
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yes0.1070.000$0.00$2.69
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? · Yes0.2630.000$0.00$28.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-25 10:05Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0169999998$110.00
06-24 22:49Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1509999989$100.00
06-24 22:49Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.019$10.00
06-24 22:47Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.6299999982$100.00
04-19 07:27Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.6699999196$1.00
04-19 07:22Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Inter Miami CF next?BUY0.0647551959$2.00
04-19 07:10Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?BUY0.0177546224$2.00
04-19 07:06European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY0.0599999724$2.00
04-19 07:05Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0479999551$1.00
04-19 07:03Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1123489355$1.00
04-19 07:02Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.1699999871$10.00
04-19 07:01Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?BUY0.0169999918$1.72
04-19 07:01Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?BUY0.129999975$3.50
04-19 07:00US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY0.16$1.00
02-24 21:33Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0699999939$10.00