2conservative
0xb8e0f4f6707b2fb64c11e623c6db203758a44bfa
- Realised P&L
- $-97.82
- Volume
- $64.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $774.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.998 | $449.22 | +$26.11 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.235 | $324.86 | −$21.75 |
| LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner · LOS | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.50 |
| LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner · LOS | 0.258 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$388.00 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner · G2 Esports | 0.545 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.01at 0.980LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner
- +$28.00at 0.6902026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- +$21.68at 0.960LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner
- +$14.47at 0.340Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- +$4.35at 0.970LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 1 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:31 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.54 | $33.72 |
| 11-01 17:21 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.94 | $423.11 |
| 11-01 17:20 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0450028608 | $490.02 |
| 11-01 17:05 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 17:04 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.13 | $34.71 |
| 11-01 17:04 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 11-01 17:03 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.11 | $75.76 |
| 11-01 16:38 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.80 |
| 11-01 16:30 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.17 | $22.10 |
| 11-01 16:29 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.25 |
| 11-01 16:29 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.17 | $28.90 |
| 11-01 15:49 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.6312532655 | $91.82 |
| 11-01 15:48 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.19 | $190.00 |
| 11-01 15:43 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1869888054 | $105.57 |
| 11-01 15:42 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.187925453 | $116.57 |