0xb8d98a83b9a55352c978078b4ee807f0f6b3fb44
0xb8d98a83b9a55352c978078b4ee807f0f6b3fb44
- Realised P&L
- $-9.56
- Volume
- $67.70
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $5.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.720 | $1.80 | +$0.80 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.980 | $1.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.880 | $1.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.860 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.54at 0.288Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?
- +$1.63at 0.380US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$0.83at 0.550Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$0.83at 0.550GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.718Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 13:56 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 05:55 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 21:39 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 05:23 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:13 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 23:45 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 08:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 07:08 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 16:08 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 07:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 21:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 14:57 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 06:53 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 09:29 | Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 18:12 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |