elreptil
0xb8d2bf9500e4731b09f54c7ebec6bf89899ec66b
- Realised P&L
- $30.6k
- Volume
- $1.61M
- Markets traded
- 164
- Open portfolio
- $18.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded164
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.863 | 0.800 | $8.3k | −$656.60 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No | 0.866 | 0.905 | $7.1k | +$303.23 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.345 | $3.5k | −$417.45 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
| Spain leading at halftime? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Norway be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Argentina to win the second half? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.741US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$5.8kat 0.872Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?
- +$3.9kat 0.203Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$3.8kat 0.911Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?
- +$3.1kat 0.935Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 02:58 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.8852115633 | $3.0k |
| 08-02 01:22 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.724334053 | $1.1k |
| 07-31 01:20 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.0k |
| 07-28 08:17 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.833302112 | $3.0k |
| 07-24 15:10 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $1.5k |
| 07-22 17:21 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3862443481 | $3.9k |
| 07-19 21:16 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2949999987 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 19:16 | Spain leading at halftime? | BUY | 0.3499999992 | $250.00 |
| 07-19 19:15 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.5975 | $248.95 |
| 07-19 19:15 | Argentina to win the second half? | BUY | 0.3099999995 | $250.00 |
| 07-19 19:14 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6 | $250.00 |
| 07-19 18:26 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4109999998 | $600.00 |
| 07-19 18:24 | Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.84 | $520.32 |
| 07-17 05:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.958 | $517.54 |
| 07-17 05:53 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.601 | $243.65 |