0xb8c2130baef8c723bcff98066232a219adab1f9a
- Realised P&L
- $2.58
- Volume
- $11.73
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar22.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.875 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 16? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.375 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.770 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.94at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?
- +$0.67at 0.600US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.52at 0.661Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.779Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 15:51 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 16? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 06:55 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 22:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 08:00 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 23:24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 14:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |