kathywarner
0xb8b539f0c1e37728d216e3cb8ae5757eb943cc36
- Realised P&L
- $-10.35
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $107.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? · No | 0.790 | 0.947 | $77.54 | +$12.82 |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs · Team Yandex | 0.850 | 0.855 | $29.57 | +$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.94at 0.748$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$0.24at 0.683Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$0.22at 0.987Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
- +$0.13at 0.989U.S. recession before May 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:58 | Will Solana dip to $90 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.41 |
| 01-30 15:24 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999668 | $6.77 |
| 01-30 15:16 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.19 |
| 01-30 13:18 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9989999632 | $21.20 |
| 01-30 13:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999962 | $31.85 |
| 12-30 16:59 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9979999586 | $8.15 |
| 12-30 12:43 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.67 |
| 12-30 11:16 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.64 |
| 12-29 21:53 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.19 |
| 12-29 21:14 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.47 |
| 10-31 15:51 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.74 |
| 10-31 15:46 | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.14 |
| 10-30 17:57 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.34 |
| 09-29 13:28 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9869999993 | $16.64 |
| 09-29 05:47 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.45 |