0xb8923e5d8e8b77746a055094cb6bdf15c107fd3a
0xb8923e5d8e8b77746a055094cb6bdf15c107fd3a
- Realised P&L
- $382.95
- Volume
- $38.2k
- Markets traded
- 258
- Open portfolio
- $2.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded258
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat? · Yes | 0.943 | 0.986 | $1.09 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.968 | $1.06 | +$0.05 |
| Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar · Juan Bautista Torres | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$226.56at 0.309Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$125.03at 0.710Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
- +$118.38at 0.633Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$108.34at 0.653Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
- +$100.07at 0.753Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 17:49 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.05 |
| 07-08 17:49 | Will the Republican Party win the WA-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 07-08 17:49 | Will the Democratic Party win the WA-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.01 |
| 07-08 17:49 | Will the Republican Party win the OR-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 07-08 17:49 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.06 |
| 07-08 17:48 | Will the Republican Party win the CA-31 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 07-08 17:48 | Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.01 |
| 07-08 17:48 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-42 House seat? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 17:48 | Will the Republican Party win the CA-42 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.01 |
| 07-08 17:47 | Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.02 |
| 07-08 17:47 | Will the Democratic Party win the VA-04 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.01 |
| 07-08 17:47 | Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.935 | $1.03 |
| 07-08 17:46 | Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.03 |
| 07-08 17:46 | Will the Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.935 | $1.06 |
| 07-08 17:46 | Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.09 |