lllbigt
0xb85f90f024547df54f9acd074d85a18e7748879e
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $65.3k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $3.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $3.75 | −$0.75 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.10 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? · No | 0.163 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$227.19at 0.686Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$195.07at 0.447Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
- +$125.14at 0.930Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$52.19at 0.330Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$46.23at 0.302Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 06:42 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $36.90 |
| 08-18 06:42 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 07-23 12:25 | Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? | SELL | 0.13 | $11.70 |
| 07-23 12:23 | Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? | SELL | 0.13 | $11.70 |
| 07-23 12:19 | Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? | SELL | 0.1305163265 | $63.95 |
| 07-23 12:07 | Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? | SELL | 0.1428566667 | $42.86 |
| 06-25 02:41 | Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.7299999764 | $30.00 |
| 06-25 02:36 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 06-12 03:50 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 05-24 01:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.6 | $115.98 |
| 05-20 14:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.86 |
| 04-30 08:02 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 04-30 08:02 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL | 0.947 | $378.78 |
| 04-20 07:52 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6 | $34.88 |
| 03-30 15:11 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.9174401627 | $137.61 |