160a
0xb819aea1df0c5b62f450aab453404d8b247869da
- Realised P&L
- $291.71
- Volume
- $6.5k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.690 | 0.695 | $1.7k | +$12.34 |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.921 | 0.943 | $207.35 | +$4.63 |
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.893 | 0.940 | $192.70 | +$9.70 |
| Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.854 | 0.865 | $145.27 | +$1.88 |
| Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.920 | 0.963 | $115.50 | +$5.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$243.39at 0.829Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$12.98at 0.548Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 02:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 08-29 12:53 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.923 | $92.30 |
| 08-27 23:53 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.68 | $543.99 |
| 08-10 21:21 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.67 | $221.10 |
| 08-05 01:33 | Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $178.00 |
| 08-05 00:54 | Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 08-05 00:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-05 00:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-05 00:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-05 00:10 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.53 | $26.28 |
| 08-04 23:36 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7205074673 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 23:35 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7058285501 | $60.00 |
| 08-04 23:08 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.68 | $39.40 |
| 08-04 23:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.849999966 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 22:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |