0xb8188867Bd6C6C40A9aA1DEA8094185beEb9838c-1776945704414
0xb8188867bd6c6c40a9aa1dea8094185beeb9838c
- Realised P&L
- $-9.51
- Volume
- $569.30
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $2.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.305 | $2.11 | −$1.89 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.90 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.40at 0.280Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?
- +$1.76at 0.280Chirayu Rana fired?
- +$0.94at 0.019Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
- +$0.64at 0.420Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- +$0.57at 0.797Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 05:32 | Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $3.10 |
| 05-01 15:39 | Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 06:16 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | SELL | 0.0279452784 | $2.94 |
| 04-30 09:14 | Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | BUY | 0.8899998072 | $3.00 |
| 04-30 09:12 | Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | BUY | 0.6111976748 | $3.00 |
| 04-30 09:10 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999802 | $4.00 |
| 04-27 09:22 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999908 | $2.00 |
| 04-27 05:57 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0579073377 | $5.00 |
| 04-24 07:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.0299999943 | $5.00 |