yourgoodman
0xb7a5e0cd46dfaebd3a1575db71074c0a540373a4
- Realised P&L
- $-266.10
- Volume
- $30.8k
- Markets traded
- 104
- Open portfolio
- $604.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded104
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $130? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $449.46 | −$1.54 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $1.50? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.505 | $101.00 | −$97.00 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.75 Week of August 10 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.981 | $53.93 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.85at 0.977Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
- +$20.34at 0.964US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$14.00at 0.910Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
- +$13.54at 0.986Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$11.94at 0.983EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 14:30 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $130? | BUY | 0.9989114047 | $451.00 |
| 08-08 14:12 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $1.50? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 08-08 14:00 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.75 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.45 |
| 08-05 08:33 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 3 above $6.00? | BUY | 0.999 | $132.87 |
| 08-02 07:32 | Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 08-02 07:31 | Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $115.88 |
| 08-02 07:30 | Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 08-02 07:29 | Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9976162996 | $104.00 |
| 08-02 07:28 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.84 |
| 07-27 15:27 | Will Chainlink reach $18 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.45 |
| 07-27 15:27 | Will Chainlink dip to $2 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $46.30 |
| 07-27 15:26 | Will Ethena reach $0.16 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.72 |
| 07-27 15:23 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-27 15:22 | Will Solana dip to $20 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-27 15:22 | Will Solana dip to $10 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |