playrole2
0xb78b75ad26596756c06bbeb6dd3fb0bf7c095d40
- Realised P&L
- $98.38
- Volume
- $66.7k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $406.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.203 | $406.00 | +$26.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? · No | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$142.60 |
| Will Solana reach $250 in August? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$230.00 |
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.73 |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Solana reach $250 in July? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.04 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$280.00 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.80 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? · No | 0.124 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.00 |
| Will Solana reach $300 in September? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$569.94 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$310.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$870.00at 0.130Solana above $130 on March 28?
- +$760.00at 0.240Will Solana reach $150 in April?
- +$750.16at 0.240Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?
- +$744.24at 0.280Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?
- +$411.75at 0.220Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 01:33 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $12.73 |
| 06-24 14:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | BUY | 0.014 | $140.00 |
| 06-24 00:13 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | SELL | 0.235 | $1.41 |
| 06-17 10:32 | Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? | BUY | 0.08 | $35.68 |
| 06-16 05:01 | Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? | BUY | 0.1 | $23.80 |
| 06-16 00:03 | Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 05-12 11:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | BUY | 0.21 | $210.00 |
| 05-12 01:13 | US-China trade deal before June? | BUY | 0.15 | $115.29 |
| 05-08 14:14 | Canada tariffs on China in effect before July? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.17 |
| 05-08 00:27 | Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.07 | $90.62 |
| 05-07 01:17 | Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? | SELL | 0.99016428 | $990.16 |
| 04-26 12:41 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 20% and 50% on April 30? | BUY | 0.033 | $41.80 |
| 04-23 00:49 | Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? | BUY | 0.24 | $240.00 |
| 04-19 11:42 | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | SELL | 0.040050403 | $79.46 |
| 04-15 11:45 | Ukraine election called in 2025? | SELL | 0.5706238185 | $114.71 |