SatisfiedQuadrant
0xb777e043af26ad46077c9bf5bedf24437237e4e0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $90.5k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $10.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$290.46at 0.721Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- +$283.12at 0.703Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes?
- +$279.13at 0.730Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$257.63at 0.477Will Trump say "Weightlifter" or "Weightlifting" during June 24 Rally?
- +$238.52at 0.760US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 04:29 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 50%-55%? | BUY | 0.8469205689 | $150.66 |
| 09-14 04:29 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 45%-50%? | BUY | 0.8446844974 | $215.39 |
| 09-11 04:43 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 5%-10%? | BUY | 0.7876467119 | $267.09 |
| 09-11 04:43 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,650,000 and 4,800,000? | BUY | 0.7099277205 | $212.15 |
| 09-09 03:43 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $759.38 |
| 09-09 03:42 | Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | BUY | 0.7533848232 | $89.25 |
| 09-09 03:42 | Will Benedita da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election? | BUY | 0.7763478658 | $170.06 |
| 09-09 03:41 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 55%-60%? | BUY | 0.825846523 | $409.60 |
| 09-07 03:18 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-06 House election by 5%-15%? | BUY | 0.8732889071 | $448.18 |
| 09-07 03:17 | Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.6942028007 | $616.70 |
| 09-07 03:16 | Will Democrats win exactly 11 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8374637681 | $231.14 |
| 09-07 03:16 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 35% or more? | BUY | 0.8040831557 | $754.23 |
| 09-07 03:15 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-08 House election by 55% or more? | BUY | 0.7954347826 | $73.18 |
| 09-06 04:06 | Will Trump meet with Mark Carney in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7509409993 | $79.80 |
| 09-06 04:05 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 20%-25%? | BUY | 0.7636553244 | $568.25 |