HellRock
0xb76f31d3f590a3e8e59d54bbf8894d56b4a9c6eb
- Realised P&L
- $-2.75
- Volume
- $8.3k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $55.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.695 | $33.76 | +$0.24 |
| Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.245 | $12.25 | −$2.75 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.135 | $7.33 | −$0.27 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.680 | $2.20 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.68at 0.820Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- +$1.08at 0.270Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?
- +$0.81at 0.816US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- +$0.80at 0.510Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?
- +$0.63at 0.720Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:22 | Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 11-01 09:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.29 |
| 11-01 09:59 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.353 | $1.59 |
| 11-01 09:59 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.07 |
| 10-30 09:04 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $12.71 |
| 10-29 21:03 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 10-29 16:01 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $4.57 |
| 10-27 18:52 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.85 |
| 10-27 14:12 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $2.42 |
| 10-27 14:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $21.24 |
| 10-25 22:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $10.02 |
| 10-24 18:24 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.906 | $0.99 |
| 10-24 18:23 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.9159992086 | $1.00 |