billonbillion
0xb7698a0bd23d5cec39da5f7d136c2dd8d42c847c
- Realised P&L
- $8.00
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $254.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.982 | $63.31 | +$1.13 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-30 House seat? · No | 0.970 | 0.985 | $61.43 | +$0.94 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? · No | 0.961 | 0.968 | $61.05 | +$0.41 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.984 | $39.36 | +$0.36 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.954 | 0.931 | $23.29 | −$0.56 |
| Will BP be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.969 | 0.966 | $6.34 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.11at 0.979Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.97at 0.966Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
- +$0.65at 0.960Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat?
- +$0.55at 0.940Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat?
- +$0.54at 0.970Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-14 11:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9809999832 | $21.38 |