luak88168
0xb7685eb4519810173ab17500fa7b0b655c0217ed
- Realised P&L
- $-228.02
- Volume
- $18.5k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $258.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · No | 0.999 | 0.997 | $155.45 | −$0.39 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.962 | $48.08 | −$0.07 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 October 12-18? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $44.87 | −$0.04 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $0.50? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $4.98 | −$0.02 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 · KT Rolster | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.99at 0.983Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
- +$12.96at 0.986Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?
- +$7.45at 0.962Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
- +$6.98at 0.988Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?
- +$6.76at 0.940Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 11:01 | Will Solana dip to $50 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $44.91 |
| 10-11 15:12 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.96 |
| 10-11 15:02 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.84 |
| 10-11 12:18 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $0.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 12:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 23:51 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 5 above $100? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-07 23:50 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $59.30 |
| 10-07 23:48 | Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $28.61 |
| 10-07 23:47 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 5 above $0.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 10-07 12:49 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $48.15 |
| 09-21 07:09 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $121.27 |
| 09-21 07:09 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $134.51 |
| 09-14 09:32 | Will XRP dip to $0.80 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $59.88 |
| 09-14 09:31 | Will Solana reach $170 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-14 09:18 | Will XRP dip to $0.70 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |