luak88168
0xb7685eb4519810173ab17500fa7b0b655c0217ed
- Realised P&L
- $-230.49
- Volume
- $16.2k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $214.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $1.80 August 3-9? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $214.18 | +$0.18 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 · KT Rolster | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.99at 0.983Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
- +$12.96at 0.986Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?
- +$7.82at 0.960Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
- +$7.10at 0.937Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
- +$6.98at 0.988Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:56 | Will XRP reach $1.80 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.9986360107 | $214.00 |
| 07-27 15:18 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of July? | BUY | 0.998 | $96.71 |
| 07-27 15:15 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July? | BUY | 0.995 | $128.35 |
| 07-22 14:45 | Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $121.63 |
| 07-18 10:55 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 07-18 10:30 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on July 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $114.89 |
| 07-17 00:59 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $240? | BUY | 0.998 | $88.82 |
| 07-17 00:58 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of July 13 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $118.88 |
| 07-12 08:21 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $35.78 |
| 07-12 08:20 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on July 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $114.89 |
| 07-12 08:19 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on July 14? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-08 09:38 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $150.85 |
| 07-05 05:50 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $140? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-05 05:49 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $161.68 |
| 06-27 00:57 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? | BUY | 0.98 | $113.68 |