0xb74204f40e85ef68bd04329f628386fd0cef51de
0xb74204f40e85ef68bd04329f628386fd0cef51de
- Realised P&L
- $290.74
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $21.24
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,148,000 and $1,159,000 on December 31? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.125 | $12.50 | +$1.30 |
| Will any series go to five maps at VALORANT Champions 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.425 | $8.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on October 31? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.006 | $0.24 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.60at 0.148Will SpaceX say "Starship" during earnings call?
- +$62.89at 0.678Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 7.5%-8.5%?
- +$42.30at 0.030Will SpaceX say "Grok" during earnings call?
- +$23.06at 0.206Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call?
- +$19.38at 0.329Will SpaceX say "Launch" 10+ times during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 21:47 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on October 31? | BUY | 0.0045550953 | $0.16 |
| 10-02 19:21 | Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,148,000 and $1,159,000 on December 31? | BUY | 0.112 | $11.20 |
| 10-01 12:32 | Will any series go to five maps at VALORANT Champions 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 19:23 | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.3248910506 | $8.35 |
| 08-27 16:53 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | SELL | 0.9429157509 | $30.89 |
| 08-25 18:56 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center revenue be above $100B? | BUY | 0.9398755234 | $49.38 |
| 08-24 19:42 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 61.0 and 63.9 in August? | SELL | 0.0083531589 | $0.68 |
| 08-24 19:42 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 58.0 and 60.9 in August? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.14 |
| 08-24 19:39 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in August? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.96 |
| 08-24 19:39 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in August? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.96 |
| 08-24 19:33 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 58.0 and 60.9 in August? | BUY | 0.019 | $1.08 |
| 08-03 02:22 | Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.18 | $25.20 |
| 07-31 21:25 | Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.2102540094 | $42.21 |
| 07-31 20:09 | Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.2472972973 | $9.15 |
| 07-31 20:08 | Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.2329854174 | $81.16 |