NikolaiMARW2025
0xb72b8f187f54620e74233988efa718581c810c77
- Realised P&L
- $276.84
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $713.65
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.450 | 0.595 | $678.30 | +$165.30 |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.495 | $35.35 | +$6.07 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2025? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.40at 0.180Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?
- +$109.50at 0.270Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
- +$109.20at 0.160Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$68.00at 0.320Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$51.31at 0.602Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-08 21:09 | Blue tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $23.51 |
| 06-08 21:08 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.45 | $513.00 |
| 01-13 21:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $176.40 |
| 01-12 20:33 | Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.997 | $129.61 |
| 12-06 16:40 | Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 10-23 07:09 | Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes? | BUY | 0.27 | $16.20 |
| 10-23 06:50 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $101.20 |
| 10-23 06:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $50.60 |
| 10-23 06:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $41.40 |
| 09-29 22:11 | Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.40778125 | $26.10 |
| 09-08 21:31 | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | BUY | 0.4899999981 | $45.00 |
| 08-26 15:03 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? | BUY | 0.54 | $43.20 |
| 07-29 21:17 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.067 | $13.40 |
| 07-29 21:17 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.065 | $2.80 |
| 07-29 21:13 | Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | BUY | 0.32 | $32.00 |