uptodate1
0xb704c5460ddeb4f6352fb5d21034b6a0df24a42d
- Realised P&L
- $-71.40
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $13.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.967 | $12.78 | +$0.09 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.009 | $1.02 | −$10.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.97at 0.094Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
- +$54.45at 0.063Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
- +$7.55at 0.051Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- +$1.49at 0.239Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$-3.04at 0.760Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 09:05 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 09:05 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.66 | $37.86 |
| 07-30 09:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.34 | $136.00 |
| 07-26 06:32 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.22 | $19.25 |
| 07-21 07:44 | Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | SELL | 0.09262 | $18.52 |