Feriburg
0xb7020616cefafae89719dcf69a0985232087e291
- Realised P&L
- $4.9k
- Volume
- $3.20M
- Markets traded
- 274
- Open portfolio
- $19.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded274
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.920 | 0.945 | $8.9k | +$235.77 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.716 | 0.735 | $7.4k | +$191.76 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.710 | 0.725 | $2.2k | +$45.00 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.106 | $498.06 | +$184.85 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.144 | $317.90 | +$34.70 |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.408 | 0.435 | $304.53 | +$18.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.485Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$4.6kat 0.934Will Biden finish his term?
- +$4.1kat 0.542Biden drops out in July?
- +$3.9kat 0.381Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$3.4kat 0.868Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 05:00 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.71 | $710.00 |
| 11-02 04:59 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.4k |
| 11-02 04:58 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 18:25 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $718.13 |
| 11-01 17:55 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $587.92 |
| 11-01 17:25 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $175.00 |
| 10-30 19:31 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $720.00 |
| 10-30 16:35 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.42 | $126.03 |
| 10-30 15:34 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $740.00 |
| 10-30 15:11 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $283.68 |
| 10-30 15:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $269.28 |
| 10-30 15:09 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $473.08 |
| 10-30 15:05 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.9k |
| 10-26 10:57 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.7k |
| 10-25 23:41 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.967 | $767.00 |