TraceyArmstrong
0xb6e5872602062f257370152c5aeafbc778b60fa0
- Realised P&L
- $-15.02
- Volume
- $15.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)9.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.973 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.01at 0.994Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?
- +$-0.17at 0.993Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$-0.47at 0.996Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
- +$-0.55at 0.996Bournemouth wins the Premier League?
- +$-0.58at 0.977Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-25 18:28 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 04-12 23:12 | Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.00 |
| 01-17 11:19 | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | BUY | 0.9929999996 | $14.21 |
| 01-03 21:25 | Manchester United wins the Premier League? | SELL | 0.992 | $870.11 |
| 01-03 21:25 | Manchester United wins the Premier League? | BUY | 0.993 | $871.00 |
| 01-03 21:25 | Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? | SELL | 0.993 | $235.53 |
| 01-03 21:25 | Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? | BUY | 0.995 | $236.00 |
| 01-03 21:24 | Bournemouth wins the Premier League? | SELL | 0.994 | $123.75 |
| 01-03 21:24 | Bournemouth wins the Premier League? | BUY | 0.996 | $124.00 |
| 01-03 08:29 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.98 | $803.72 |
| 01-03 08:29 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.984 | $807.00 |
| 01-03 08:29 | Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.974 | $162.49 |
| 01-03 08:28 | Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.9769999999 | $163.00 |
| 01-02 21:25 | Everton wins the Premier League? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.1k |
| 01-02 21:25 | Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? | SELL | 0.993 | $34.92 |