theeuro
0xb6a86aa384d1409a2250f6b326f64390e0a72e55
- Realised P&L
- $-4.3k
- Volume
- $72.0k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $699.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.750 | $627.37 | +$142.20 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.989 | $71.75 | +$2.36 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.1k |
| Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$290.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$342.69at 0.925Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$215.40at 0.960Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$196.57at 0.961Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$121.65at 0.912Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
- +$65.58at 0.988Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 23:30 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $69.39 |
| 08-29 16:34 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $278.96 |
| 08-19 00:33 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | BUY | 0.991 | $5.6k |
| 08-03 04:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 08-01 03:27 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.0k |
| 07-29 07:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $106.01 |
| 07-29 01:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $71.77 |
| 07-29 00:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $57.10 |
| 07-28 23:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $3.0k |
| 07-27 02:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $880.00 |
| 07-27 02:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | BUY | 0.987 | $3.97 |
| 07-27 02:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $335.82 |
| 07-25 16:29 | Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? | SELL | 0.78 | $8.48 |
| 07-25 16:28 | Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? | SELL | 0.78 | $8.47 |
| 07-25 13:22 | Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.989 | $1.3k |