worrisomemachine
0xb6682dc95069bb83ddf8266a00b7fee732f2bbf5
- Realised P&L
- $-14.87
- Volume
- $996.65
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $212.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.885 | $88.50 | +$13.50 |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? · No | 0.780 | 0.885 | $88.50 | +$10.50 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.165 | $35.06 | −$14.94 |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · No | 0.677 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.43at 0.420Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$36.19at 0.453Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
- +$12.87at 0.608Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$9.37at 0.680Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 13:52 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $100.00 |
| 05-22 13:49 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 05-22 13:49 | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.75 | $75.00 |
| 01-17 18:29 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | BUY | 0.6767381207 | $20.00 |
| 01-17 18:28 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6084272101 | $20.00 |
| 01-17 18:22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999944 | $30.00 |
| 01-17 17:55 | Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? | BUY | 0.6799999959 | $19.91 |
| 01-17 17:46 | Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | BUY | 0.4532228048 | $30.00 |
| 01-17 17:30 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2352941176 | $50.00 |